http://ir.haramaya.edu.et//hru/handle/123456789/246 2026-04-20T11:01:47Z 2026-04-20T11:01:47Z Shuayb Mohamed Osman (Dr) Asfaw Kebede (Dr) Meseret Dawit http://ir.haramaya.edu.et//hru/handle/123456789/8104 2024-12-31T07:05:50Z 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN SOMALI REGION, ETHIOPIA Shuayb Mohamed Osman; (Dr) Asfaw Kebede; (Dr) Meseret Dawit Drought is recognized as a major climatic hazard and a critical development and environmental challenge in Ethiopia’s Somali Region. This study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural and hydrological droughts in the region, employing three drought indices: the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Data from seven meteorological stations, spanning from 1993 to 2022, were analyzed to assess historical drought patterns. For future projections (2026-2100), climate data was downscaled using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, artificial neural networks (ANN), implemented using Python, were used to predict future streamflow and hydrological drought. The results indicated that the SPI showed 62.07% in near-normal conditions, with 20.69% in moderate wet, and 7.15% in severe drought conditions. For the RDI under both RCP scenarios, near- and mid-century projections show moderate wetness and varying levels of drought, with a notable increase in extreme drought under RCP 8.5. This study highlights the region’s vulnerability to climate change and provides crucial insights for future drought management strategies. 99p.

2024-11-01T00:00:00Z Eden Tadele Asfaw Kebede (Ph.D) http://ir.haramaya.edu.et//hru/handle/123456789/8059 2024-12-23T07:19:10Z 2023-08-01T00:00:00Z

IMPACT OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE ON SOIL EROSION AND SEDIMENT YIELD IN BORKENA SUB-BASIN, AWASH RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA Eden Tadele; Asfaw Kebede (Ph.D) There is a growing global focus on the impacts of land-use land-cover (LULC) change on soil resources, particularly due to its significant impact. Soil erosion, a crucial environmental issue of great magnitude, is particularly severe in developing nations. This study aimed to assess the impact of land use/land cover change on soil loss and sediment yield using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment in Borkena watershed, Awash river basin, Ethiopia. The study used Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps of 2010 and 2020 to evaluat the impact of land use land cover change on soil loss and sediment yield. Various factors, such as rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover management, and conservation practices were considered to calculate soil erosion potential between 2010 and 2020. The integration of the RUSLE and GIS was used to analyze the impact of LULC change on soil erosion and sedimentation. The mean annual soil loss from the watershed was estimated to be 8.13 t/ha/yr in 2010 and 10.34 t/ha/yr in 2020 . Cultivated lands produced the highest rates of soil loss and sediment yield, followed by bare land and grass land areas, when compared to other land uses/covers. The mean annual sediment yield was estimated to be 2.61 t/ha/yr in 2010 and 2.87 t/ha/yr in 2020. The sediment delivery ratio (SDR) of the watershed ranged between 0 and 0.549. The implications of this study's findings emphasize the need for immediate action to address soil erosion and sedimentation issues in the Borkena watershed. By implementing targeted soil and water conservation measures, integrating land use planning with conservation efforts, rehabilitating degraded lands, and formulating supportive policies, it is possible to mitigate the adverse impacts of land use/land cover change and promote sustainable land and water resource management in the watershed. 76

2023-08-01T00:00:00Z Mahad Mohammed Dr. Asfaw Kebede Dr. Meseret Dawit http://ir.haramaya.edu.et//hru/handle/123456789/7929 2024-11-25T06:46:34Z 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z

ASSESSMENT OF CIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY AND ALLOCATION IN SHABELLE RVER ASIN, SOMALIA Mahad Mohammed; Dr. Asfaw Kebede; Dr. Meseret Dawit On a global scale, climate change is projected to have detrimental impacts on harm water avail- ability. This situation will become more severe due to climate change's accumulated impacts and anthropogenic activities. This study aims to investigate climate change impact on water availability and allocation in the Shabelle River Basin, Somalia using the Soil and Water As- sessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) from CORXDEX Africa derived by the ICHEC-EC-EARTH global climate model under two scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 was used in this study. The future periods are divided into three-time horizons with equal length of time as the base line period 2025–2048, 2049–2072 and 2073–2096. The projected annual average precipitation increase reached 8.6% under RCP4.5 and 32% under RCP8.5. Under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario the average monthly maximum temperature increased up to 2.56°C and 1.68°C for minimum temperature, similarly under RCP8.5, temperature increased up to 4°C and 3.7°C respective for maximum and Minimum temperature. The calibration and validation of SWAT were per- formed using monthly discharge, and the result showed agreement between the observed and simulated data sets. The model assessment statistics, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coef- ficient of determination (��2) values were 0.68 and 0.69, for the calibration period and 0.68 and 0.71, for the validation period. The average annual discharge volume will increase to 12% un- der RCP4.5 and 17% under RCP8.5, excluding the 9.3% that will be decreased in the near term (2025-2048). On the other hand, climate change has resulted in a reduction in future water shortages. The unmet demand is anticipated to decline by 48% underRCP4.5 and also 49% under RCP8.5 in all scenarios. Based on a single GCM output may not give a clear represen- tation of future changes, A comprehensive study is highly needed, and the issue has to be ad- dressed at a scale relevant to decision-making based on multiple GCMs under new climate change emission scenarios for better understanding of the potential impacts 98p.

2024-04-01T00:00:00Z Mahad Mohammed Dr. Asfaw Kebede Dr. Meseret Dawit http://ir.haramaya.edu.et//hru/handle/123456789/7871 2024-06-25T08:30:41Z 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY AND ALLOCATION IN SHABELLE RIVER BASIN, SOMALIA Mahad Mohammed; Dr. Asfaw Kebede; Dr. Meseret Dawit On a global scale, climate change is projected to have detrimental impacts on harm water avail- ability. This situation will become more severe due to climate change's accumulated impacts and anthropogenic activities. This study aims to investigate climate change impact on water availability and allocation in the Shabelle River Basin, Somalia using the Soil and Water As- sessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) from CORXDEX Africa derived by the ICHEC-EC-EARTH global climate model under two scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 was used in this study. The future periods are divided into three-time horizons with equal length of time as the base line period 2025–2048, 2049–2072 and 2073–2096. The projected annual average precipitation increase reached 8.6% under RCP4.5 and 32% under RCP8.5. Under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario the average monthly maximum temperature increased up to 2.56°C and 1.68°C for minimum temperature, similarly under RCP8.5, temperature increased up to 4°C and 3.7°C respective for maximum and Minimum temperature. The calibration and validation of SWAT were per- formed using monthly discharge, and the result showed agreement between the observed and simulated data sets. The model assessment statistics, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coef- ficient of determination (��2) values were 0.68 and 0.69, for the calibration period and 0.68 and 0.71, for the validation period. The average annual discharge volume will increase to 12% un- der RCP4.5 and 17% under RCP8.5, excluding the 9.3% that will be decreased in the near term (2025-2048). On the other hand, climate change has resulted in a reduction in future water shortages. The unmet demand is anticipated to decline by 48% underRCP4.5 and also 49% under RCP8.5 in all scenarios. Based on a single GCM output may not give a clear represen- tation of future changes, A comprehensive study is highly needed, and the issue has to be ad- dressed at a scale relevant to decision-making based on multiple GCMs under new climate change emission scenarios for better understanding of the potential impacts 98p.

2024-04-01T00:00:00Z