ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON MAIZE (Zea mays L.) AND WHEAT (Triticum aestivum L.) PRODUCTION AND FARMERS’ ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN SORO DISTRICT, HADIYA ZONE, SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Crop production is susceptible to weather and hence directly responsive to climate change, resulting in decline in yield and leads to food insecurity. This study was conducted in Soro district, Hadiya zone of southern Ethiopia to analyze climate change and variability on maize and wheat production and assess adaptation options. The primary data were collected by using household survey, focus group discussions, semi-structured interviews and field observation. The observed daily climate data (1980-2009) were downscaled from the Global weather generator file while future climate daily data (2010-2095) were downscaled by using MarkSim Global Climate Model. An ensemble of three climate models (CSIRO-MK3-6-0, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was used to analyze future climate scenarios for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures for the period 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Descriptive statistics were used for data summary and analysis. The mean maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend at inter-annual scale of 0.16 and 0.19ºC per decade respectively and all the seasons. The seasonal rainfall showed high inter-seasonal variability. Projected temperature change result indicates that future maximum and minimum temperature will increase in all the years and seasons under both RCPs scenarios during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s and very high at the end century under RCP8.5. Projected annual rainfall at the near century will decrease while increase at the mid and end century under both scenarios. Combined effect of increasing future temperature and variability of projected rainfall in maize and wheat growing season will be major factor for their production. Strengthening and improving existing adaptation measures and some adaptive actions like Small scale irrigation, promote heat and moisture deficit resistant crops, applying soil and water conservation activities, using best planting date and crop diversification, application of appropriate fertilizer and others cropping technologies will be needed to increase yield and sustain livelihood.