MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF TUBERCULOSIS WITH DRUG RESISTANCE IN NORTH SHOA ZONE OROMIYA, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is currently one of the major public health challenges in Ethiopia. Mycobacterium tuberculosis is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. It is known that tuberculosis is a curable infectious disease. In the case of incomplete treatment, however, the remains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the human system often results in the bacterium developing resistant to antibiotics. In this study the dynamics of tuberculosis with drug resistant by considering compartments of susceptible, exposed, infected, resistant to a first line of treatment and recovered humans was investigated. The basic reproduction number, ℛ o, using the next generation method was calculated. The disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium were obtained and their stability analysis done to show that they are locally and globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulation result describes that the interaction can eliminate the sensitive strain and reduces drug resistant tuberculosis. To validate the model, the data collected from North Shoa Zone, Oromiya Regional State from September 2013 to December 2018 were used