IMPACT OF RURAL OUT-MIGRANTS ON THEIR HOUSEHOLDS’ VULNERABILITY TO RURAL MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY AND CROP PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY IN SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of participation in rural-urban and international migration on vulnerability to rural multidimensional poverty, and crop production efficiency of migrant sending households in southern Ethiopia. It also quantified the extent and examined the determinants of rural multidimensional poverty and vulnerability to rural multidimensional poverty. In the year 2021, data were collected from 415 sample households using stratified random sampling. While the partial proportional odds model was used to investigate the sources of household vulnerability to rural multidimensional poverty, the ordered logit model was used to investigate the determinants of rural multidimensional deprivation. The impact of rural out migration on vulnerability, and technical efficiency of wheat and teff producers was measured using the multinomial endogenous switching model. Rural multidimensional poverty had a 72.3, 57.3, and 41.4 percent incidence, intensity, and adjusted headcount ratio, respectively. The living standard and rural livelihood dimensions together contributed about 60 percent to rural poverty. Besides, 84 percent of rural households were vulnerable to future multidimensional poverty. Chronic and transitory rural multidimensional poverty affected approximately 66.5 and 23.37 percent of households, respectively. Female-headed households were more vulnerable to poverty compared to male-headed households. The switching regression results showed that international migration reduced rural multidimensional poverty and vulnerability by 34.27 and 12.35 percent, respectively, whereas rural-urban migration reduced rural multidimensional poverty and vulnerability by 20.63 and 11.40 percent, respectively. Likewise, rural-urban and international migration reduced wheat productivity by 110.94 and 179.11 kilograms, respectively while rural-urban and international migration reduced teff productivity by 382.94 and 747.49 kilograms, respectively. Similarily, international migration reduced Teff producers' technical efficiency by 5.51 percent. Policymakers must improve access to credit, nonfarm employment, rural land, and public infrastructure to capitalize on the positive gains and mitigate the negative effects of rural-out migration. Motivating rural youth to work in agriculture will help to reduce the current wave of rural out-migration in southern Ethiopia