Abstract:
Ethiopia's adaptive capacity to climate change is limited by limited livelihood options and insufficient ability to withstand it. Pastoralists are extremely impacted by climate change and variability. Therefore, this study aims to assess pastoralists' perceptions of climate change, compare them to meteorological evidence, identify major adaptation strategies, and analyze the factors that influence the choice of adaptation options in the Teltele District of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select representative kebeles and pastoralists. A total of 349 sample pastoralists were selected from three kebeles of the district through systematic random. The study was carried out using a cross-sectional survey. Key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and semi-structured interviews were used to gather primary data, while the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia provided meteorological data. Descriptive statistics and Likert scale measurements were employed to analyze the pastoralists’ perception and socio-demographic, economic, and institutional characteristics. A Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze temperature and rainfall trends over 31 years and multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to identify the determinants of pastoralists' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The results revealed that throughout the 31 years, temperature significantly increased at (P < 0.01) while rainfall significantly decreased at ( P < 0.05 ). Pastoralists constantly perceived this climate change over time. Pastoralists use herd mobility, livestock diversification, and destocking as major adaptation strategies and the main barrier to adaptation was the lack of scientific and updated climate information. Moreover, this study indicated that sex, age, livestock ownership, access to credit, access to climate information, market distance, pastoral income, and membership in a social group, of households significantly influence pastoralists’ choice of adaptation strategies. Therefore, to build the future adapting capacity of pastoralists future policy and research should focus on improving access to climate information, market and credit access, pastoral income, strength pastoralists association and rangeland management, and evaluating the economic impact of each adaptation option on the livelihood of pastoralists.
