EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TEFF (Eragrostis tef [Zucc] Trotter) YIELD AND FARMERS’ ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN ADEA DISTRICT OF EAST SHEWA ZONE, OROMIA NATIONAL REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate variability on teff yield and the adaptation strategies employed by farmers in the Adea district of Ethiopia. The study utilized a combination of purposive and simple random sampling techniques. Three rural kebeles were selected purposively from the midland agro-ecology, and a total of 146 teff farmer respondents were randomly selected using a lottery method. To gather the necessary data, both primary and secondary sources were utilized. Historical climate data (1981-2021) of the Adea district were obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) power data access, while thirteen years of teff yield data (2009-2021) were obtained from the Adea district Agriculture and Rural Development Office. Surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions were conducted with teff farmers to gather information on their adaptation strategies in response to climate variability. The collected data were analyzed using qualitative and quantitative methods. The study analyzed climate variability and trends in the Adea district, focusing on annual, seasonal, and monthly temperatures and rainfall. The results indicated a steady increase and decrease in temperature during the study period, with significant increasing trends observed in kiremt seasonal rainfall. The annual minimum temperature also showed a significant increasing trend (P<0.05) by a factor of 0.018. The total annual rainfall exhibited significant variability (P<0.01) over the 41 years, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 25.59% and a standard deviation (SD) of 287.78 mm. The driest year on record was in 2002, while the wettest year occurred in 2020. The result also revealed a prevalence of meteorological drought conditions with 58.54% of the months experiencing drought over the 41 years based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis. Multiple regression analysis showed that 94.3% of the variation in teff productivity was explained by climate variables. The analysis indicated that climate variables have a statistically significant influence on teff productivity. Farmers in the study area have implemented a range of adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability. These strategies include using improved crop varieties, adjusting planting dates, diversifying crops, implementing small-scale irrigation and water harvesting methods, cultivating drought-resistant crops, and practicing soil and water conservation techniques. The study highlights the importance of considering socio-economic, institutional, and environmental factors in implementing effective climate risk management strategies for teff farming in the region. It is imperative to implement climate risk management strategies that consider location-specific socioeconomic factors to combat the potential effects of climate variability on teff yield.