IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN SOMALI REGION, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Drought is recognized as a major climatic hazard and a critical development and environmental challenge in Ethiopia’s Somali Region. This study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural and hydrological droughts in the region, employing three drought indices: the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Data from seven meteorological stations, spanning from 1993 to 2022, were analyzed to assess historical drought patterns. For future projections (2026-2100), climate data was downscaled using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, artificial neural networks (ANN), implemented using Python, were used to predict future streamflow and hydrological drought. The results indicated that the SPI showed 62.07% in near-normal conditions, with 20.69% in moderate wet, and 7.15% in severe drought conditions. For the RDI under both RCP scenarios, near- and mid-century projections show moderate wetness and varying levels of drought, with a notable increase in extreme drought under RCP 8.5. This study highlights the region’s vulnerability to climate change and provides crucial insights for future drought management strategies.