UNDER-FIVE MORTALITY AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN HARARGE HEALTH AND DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM, KERSA WOREDA, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Background: Climate change is a growing global threat to human health and ecological systems. Fluctuations in key climate variables such as average temperature, rainfall, and humidity significantly impact the transmission and distribution patterns of different diseases. Despite of rising awareness, limited research has explored on how climate variability affects under-five child mortality from preventable diseases such as diarrhea, malaria, severe malnutrition, and respiratory infections in Kersa Woreda. This study addresses that gap by analyzing long-term climate and health data to uncover the links between climate variability and child mortality, offering evidence to guide targeted and climate responsive public health interventions. Objective: This study aims to assess under-five mortality and its association with climate variability in the Kersa Woreda, Eastern Ethiopia, from 2008 to 2022. Data was collected from March 1 to 30, 2025. Methods: An ecological time series analysis was done based on 180 monthly aggregated data points, capturing 1,731 under-five children’s deaths over a 15-year period. Climate data specifically temperature, rainfall, and humidity were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency. To assess the correlation between climate variables and under-five children mortality from diarrhea, malaria, respiratory infections, and severe malnutrition, an ARIMAX model was applied using STATA version 14.0. Statistical significance was defined at a p-value of <0.05. Result: The findings of this study indicated that malaria-related deaths exhibited a declining trend over time (mean 10.67, SD 52.07) and were significantly associated with temperature in the ARIMA (1,0,0) model, indicating a climate-sensitive transmission pattern. Mortality from diarrheal diseases showed fluctuating but generally increasing trends (mean 48, SD 23.32), with a positive and significant association with temperature in the ARIMA (1,0,1) model. Respiratory disease mortality displayed irregular patterns (mean 38.13, SD 18.85) and showed no significant association with any of the climate variables studied. Deaths due to severe malnutrition generally declined (mean 20.87, SD 9.86) and were significantly associated with humidity in the ARIMA (0,0,4) model. Conclusion: The study stated distinct trends and associations between climate variables and under-five child mortality, depending on the cause of death. Temperature was significantly associated with increased mortality from malaria and diarrheal diseases, while humidity was linked to deaths related to severe malnutrition. These findings suggest needs to integrate climate considerations into child health programs. Public health interventions focused at reducing under five child mortality in the study area should adopt climate-responsive strategies, with particular focus on mitigating the health impacts of rising and fluctuating temperatures and humidity.