Abstract:
downscaling projected temperature and rainfall in all time periods of the century (2020s ,2050s
and 2080s),under two concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Similarly, DSSAT crop
model was used to analyze the impacts of the projected climate change on the yields of Ejere and
Natoli chickpea varieties and to evaluate adaptation options. Different planting dates were
analyzed to identify best adaptation option. Simulations were done after calibrating and
validating the crop model. The results revealed that future annual rainfall would vary from -0.15
to 0.097% and 1.3 to 4.57%, respectively under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Increased changes in
annual rainfall was found under the higher concentration pathway at each period with over 3.9
%, 1.3% and 4.57 % in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively. Projections indicated a clear
warming conditions in Adaa district with an increased changes in maximum temperature with
over 2.5 and 4.1 0C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively in 2080s. The results revealed that
the two chickpea varieties (Ejere and Natoli) responded differently to climate change within the
future periods and scenarios. Declined yield changes surpassed the increment. Natoli is expected
to be benefited in the upcoming time periods under RCP 4.5 as compared with Ejere, but with
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slight changes form base period (0.7%) in 2050s. On the contrary, yield declines of over 8.8% is
projected for Ejere in the same scenario. Early planting (July 25) resulted in increased grain
yields (over 14.3%) for both varieties in all periods and scenarios considered as compared to the
normal (August 20) and late planting (September10). Adjusting planting dates and selection of
varieties that fit with the projected climate scenarios were found to be a promising pathway for
enhanced productivity of chickpea in Adaa district
