IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CHICKPEA (Cicer arietinum L.) PRODUCTION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN ADAA DISTRICT, CENTRAL ETHIOPIA

Abstract

downscaling projected temperature and rainfall in all time periods of the century (2020s ,2050s and 2080s),under two concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Similarly, DSSAT crop model was used to analyze the impacts of the projected climate change on the yields of Ejere and Natoli chickpea varieties and to evaluate adaptation options. Different planting dates were analyzed to identify best adaptation option. Simulations were done after calibrating and validating the crop model. The results revealed that future annual rainfall would vary from -0.15 to 0.097% and 1.3 to 4.57%, respectively under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Increased changes in annual rainfall was found under the higher concentration pathway at each period with over 3.9 %, 1.3% and 4.57 % in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively. Projections indicated a clear warming conditions in Adaa district with an increased changes in maximum temperature with over 2.5 and 4.1 0C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively in 2080s. The results revealed that the two chickpea varieties (Ejere and Natoli) responded differently to climate change within the future periods and scenarios. Declined yield changes surpassed the increment. Natoli is expected to be benefited in the upcoming time periods under RCP 4.5 as compared with Ejere, but with xvi slight changes form base period (0.7%) in 2050s. On the contrary, yield declines of over 8.8% is projected for Ejere in the same scenario. Early planting (July 25) resulted in increased grain yields (over 14.3%) for both varieties in all periods and scenarios considered as compared to the normal (August 20) and late planting (September10). Adjusting planting dates and selection of varieties that fit with the projected climate scenarios were found to be a promising pathway for enhanced productivity of chickpea in Adaa district