Abstract:
The causative agent of Anthrax B. anthracis has long been known to cause disease in
animals and humans. Its distribution across worldwide has gain attention includes in
Ethiopia as endemic country to the disease. The current study is aimed at identifying and
developing map of anthrax risky areas that are suitable for persistence of anthrax spores
under climate change scenarios by using anthrax occurrence data and other predictor
variables in Maxent model. A total of 158 occurrence locations were used as inputs along
10 bioclimatic, topographic and other satellite derived covariates to develop a model and
evaluate the individual contribution of each variable to the presence of B. anthracis in
Ethiopia. The study classified the Current distribution into Current scenario1 and Current
scenario2 depending on the availability of non-bioclimatic predictors under future
modeling scenarios. Its concluded that under both Current scenarios the most important
variables limiting the distribution of B. anthracis in Ethiopia were Temperature,
Precipitation, Land cover, Elevation and to a lesser extent soil calcium content and soil
pH. Under HADGEM2-ES future modeling scenarios except for RCP 8.5/2050 there is a
decrease in areas of suitability from Current scenario under RCP 2.6/2050, RCP 2.6/2070
and RCP 8.5/2070. Subtle expansions of suitable areas are identified under RCP 2.6/2050
and RCP 2.6/2070 in eastern parts of Ethiopia. However, there are small portions of
southern areas which are expected to lose the suitable habitats under all future scenarios.
The findings of this study could help Animal health protection and public health authorities
to formulate protection, prevention and control policies and strategies for suitable areas
under B. anthracis. Increasing Pre-outbreak surveillance is also another importance to be
expected from this study. Furthermore, the application of this thesis could also add the
priorities of increasing surveillance in future predicted suitable areas for anthrax spores.
