CLIMATE VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON WHEAT YIELD AND FARMERS’ ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN GEDEB HASASA WOREDA, WEST ARSI ZONE, OROMIA REGION, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Climate variability (rainfall and temperature) directly and indirectly affect cultivation of wheat yield, these condition impacting the smallholder farmer living in the Ethiopia specially whose life is dependent on rain fed agriculture. However, the rate of impact is varied within areas and households. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate variability on wheat yield and adaptation strategies in Gedeb Hasasa woreda. To achieve this objective, essential information was gathered from 350 sample smallholder farmers’ were selected purposely from three kebeles through survey questioner, interviews and focus group discussions based on mixed research design. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected concurrently. Quantitative and Qualitative data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. The quantitative data includes long-term climatic data and Wheat outputs for 20 years (2002 – 2021) were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) of Ethiopia Asela branch and Hasasa Agricultural Office respectively. Data from different sources were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics including coefficient correlation, multivariate regression and multinomial logit models (MNL). The result of the study shows that the annual maximum and minimum temperature significantly increased by a factor of 0.368 0C and 0.338 0C respectively. In the study area, there was a negative correlation between wheat yield and annual rainfall(r=-0.274). Due to climatic factors, about 41.7% of wheat yield variation was observed in the study area. The regression result shows that climate variables significantly affect wheat yields. Multinomial logit model was used to analyze factors that determine preference of adaptation strategies to climate variability and the result showed that farmers perception of climate variability, sex, age, family size, level of education, experience, income and others are significant factors that determine farmers’ preferences/choices of adaptation strategies to climate variability. Hence, these findings suggested a need to encourage smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity.