Abstract:
Climate change presents a significant environmental challenge in the 21st century. This study
analyzed rainfall and temperature trends in central Ethiopia from 1986-2018, evaluated farmers'
perceptions of climate change impact, calibrated, evaluated, and used the CERES-Maize model in
DSSAT to analyze impact and explore adaptations. The results showed significant increasing
trends in Sen's Slope estimator at Ambo, Bako, Melkassa, Shashemane, Mojo, Batu, and Arsi
Negele. The Kiremt season begin in June and varied between Bako, Ambo, and Melkassa. The
average growing season ranged from 95 to 136 days, with the shortest and longest seasons at
Melkassa and Ambo. Rainfall exhibited significant increasing trends (p<0.05) in all stations with
Sen’s Slope estimator ranging between 0.11 and 12.44. The start of the Kiremt season varied from
June (Jun 4 at Bako) to July (Jul 1 at Shashemane). The average growing season varied between
95 (at Melkassa) to 136 days (at Ambo). Most farmers adopted adaptation strategies, including
improved seeds, adjusting planting dates, crop rotation, changing crop types, crop rotation, and
reducing livestock numbers. Factors such as age, gender, education, marital status, extension
service, social group, annual income, financial year and land ownership had a significant impact
on the choice of climate change and adaptation options. The model evaluation showed a strong
agreement between observed and simulated flowering dates and grain yield. The model result
showed a significant change in corn yield between 2040 and 2070 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios. The changes ranged from -38% to 47%. In 2040, it ranged from -37% to 50% and in
2070. Therefore, to reduce this yield loss, farmers in the study area should either supplement their
crop with irrigation or use an early maturing crop unless they want to lose yield
