ANALYSES AND EVALUATION OF MANAGEMENT OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING MAIZE (ZEA MAYS L.) TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Climate change presents a significant environmental challenge in the 21st century. This study analyzed rainfall and temperature trends in central Ethiopia from 1986-2018, evaluated farmers' perceptions of climate change impact, calibrated, evaluated, and used the CERES-Maize model in DSSAT to analyze impact and explore adaptations. The results showed significant increasing trends in Sen's Slope estimator at Ambo, Bako, Melkassa, Shashemane, Mojo, Batu, and Arsi Negele. The Kiremt season begin in June and varied between Bako, Ambo, and Melkassa. The average growing season ranged from 95 to 136 days, with the shortest and longest seasons at Melkassa and Ambo. Rainfall exhibited significant increasing trends (p<0.05) in all stations with Sen’s Slope estimator ranging between 0.11 and 12.44. The start of the Kiremt season varied from June (Jun 4 at Bako) to July (Jul 1 at Shashemane). The average growing season varied between 95 (at Melkassa) to 136 days (at Ambo). Most farmers adopted adaptation strategies, including improved seeds, adjusting planting dates, crop rotation, changing crop types, crop rotation, and reducing livestock numbers. Factors such as age, gender, education, marital status, extension service, social group, annual income, financial year and land ownership had a significant impact on the choice of climate change and adaptation options. The model evaluation showed a strong agreement between observed and simulated flowering dates and grain yield. The model result showed a significant change in corn yield between 2040 and 2070 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The changes ranged from -38% to 47%. In 2040, it ranged from -37% to 50% and in 2070. Therefore, to reduce this yield loss, farmers in the study area should either supplement their crop with irrigation or use an early maturing crop unless they want to lose yield