Abstract:
Tuberculosis is among the leading causes of death globally. Every year
more than 10 million peoples are suffering from tuberculosis. United nation and world
health organization stated that urgent action is required to end the global tuberculosis
epidemic in 2030. In Ethiopia, there is a scarcity of information on trend of tuberculosis
particularly in this study setting. As a result, significant numbers of the total case load are
outside of the conventional tuberculosis control programme and threaten the control
strategy. There is limited study on trend and forecasted information of all types of
tuberculosis analysed using time series analysis in Harar governmental and private health
facilities.
Objective: To assess and forecast the trend of all types of tuberculosis in government and
private health facilities in Harar, Eastern Ethiopia from 2007EFY - 2016EFY (July 08,
2014G.C-July 07, 2024G.C). Data extraction was conducted from July 10-20, 2024.
Method: In this study all type of tuberculosis cases reported to Harari regional health
bureau was included quarterly in the last 10 years and data were extracted from District
health information system of Harari regional health bureau. Routine surveillance-based
time series analysis was conducted to assess the trend of all types of tuberculosis.
Autoregressive integrated moving average model have been used to forecast all types of
Tuberculosis cases. STATA software version 17 and Time series analysis have been used
for analyzing the data.
Results: Based on this research finding, number of all forms of tuberculosis cases in the
last ten years (2007-2016EFY) have been increased significantly. The forecasting result of
this research also shows that the number of all forms of tuberculosis will be increased in
the next six years in the same increasing range of in the past ten years. In addition to that in
the last ten years treatment outcome of all forms of tuberculosis cases were good but still
there is death, failed to treatment, loss of treatment and moved to MDR-TB list cases were
increased in the past ten years.
Conclusion: The number of tuberculosis cases over the past ten years in Harari region has
increased year to year among young adults and the number of forecasted or predicted
tuberculosis cases to be detected in the next six years will also increase in the same number
of TB cases in the past ten years
