TREND OF ALL TYPES OF TUBERCULOSIS AT HEALTH FACILITIES IN HARARI REGION, EASTERN ETHIOPIA: A 10 YEAR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Abstract

Tuberculosis is among the leading causes of death globally. Every year more than 10 million peoples are suffering from tuberculosis. United nation and world health organization stated that urgent action is required to end the global tuberculosis epidemic in 2030. In Ethiopia, there is a scarcity of information on trend of tuberculosis particularly in this study setting. As a result, significant numbers of the total case load are outside of the conventional tuberculosis control programme and threaten the control strategy. There is limited study on trend and forecasted information of all types of tuberculosis analysed using time series analysis in Harar governmental and private health facilities. Objective: To assess and forecast the trend of all types of tuberculosis in government and private health facilities in Harar, Eastern Ethiopia from 2007EFY - 2016EFY (July 08, 2014G.C-July 07, 2024G.C). Data extraction was conducted from July 10-20, 2024. Method: In this study all type of tuberculosis cases reported to Harari regional health bureau was included quarterly in the last 10 years and data were extracted from District health information system of Harari regional health bureau. Routine surveillance-based time series analysis was conducted to assess the trend of all types of tuberculosis. Autoregressive integrated moving average model have been used to forecast all types of Tuberculosis cases. STATA software version 17 and Time series analysis have been used for analyzing the data. Results: Based on this research finding, number of all forms of tuberculosis cases in the last ten years (2007-2016EFY) have been increased significantly. The forecasting result of this research also shows that the number of all forms of tuberculosis will be increased in the next six years in the same increasing range of in the past ten years. In addition to that in the last ten years treatment outcome of all forms of tuberculosis cases were good but still there is death, failed to treatment, loss of treatment and moved to MDR-TB list cases were increased in the past ten years. Conclusion: The number of tuberculosis cases over the past ten years in Harari region has increased year to year among young adults and the number of forecasted or predicted tuberculosis cases to be detected in the next six years will also increase in the same number of TB cases in the past ten years