SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF LAND USE / LAND COVER CHANGE, AND THEIR IMPLICATION ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY: THE CASE OF GOBELE WATERSHED OF WABI SHEBELLE BASIN, EASTERN ETHIOPIA.

Abstract

Land use change is one of the challenges that aggravate environmental problems. Understanding the scope of land use change and consequences is very crucial for proper management of land resources. This study examines the nexus between land use, land cover (LULC) change, and climate variability in the Gobele watershed of the Wabe Shebele Basin, Eastern Ethiopia, over the period 1993–2023. Landsat images were used to analyze LULC, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and LST (Land Surface Temperature), while rainfall data was obtained from CHIRPS. The analysis was conducted using ArcGIS 10.8. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied to assess the relationship between LULCC and NDVI with climate variables. The supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm was employed for classification of the LULC. The results indicate a significant increase in agricultural land and settlement areas, whereas bare land, forests, grazing land, shrub land, and water bodies have declined. NDVI values for each land use class ranged from -0.39 to +0.66 in 1993, from -0.63 to +0.42 in 2003, from -0.26 to +0.54 in 2013, and from -0.17 to +0.58 in 2023. The NDVI values revealed both decreasing and increasing trends across different land use types. In contrast, LST exhibited a consistent upward trend, while rainfall showed a declining trend, both of which are linked to LULC changes in the watershed. The correlation analysis revealed a negative relationship between NDVI and LST, and a positive relationship between NDVI and rainfall. These findings underscore the importance of appropriate land use management practices to mitigate the adverse effects of LULC changes on climate variability in the region.