IMPACT OF DROUGHT, COPING STRATEGY AND THEIR DETERMINANTS AMONG AGRO-PASTORAL HOUSEHOLDS: IN META WOREDA, EASTERN HARARGHE ZONE, AND OROMIA REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Droughts rank among the most pervasive natural calamities, deeply affecting global socioeconomic endeavors and individual welfare on a worldwide scale, with Ethiopia experiencing significant ramifications that exacerbate food insecurity and poverty. This research delves into the repercussions of droughts, the strategies employed to cope with them, and the factors influencing these strategies among agro-pastoral households in Meta Woreda, situated in the East Hararghe Zone of the Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Combining primary and secondary data sources, primary data was gathered through structured questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions, while secondary data was sourced from the National Meteorological Agency. A simple random sampling method was utilized to select households, resulting in 348 households being surveyed. Various coping mechanisms were identified, including Crop-based, Livestock-based, Water resource-based, and Income-based strategies. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and a multinomial logit model, while the standardized precipitation index and rainfall trends were evaluated using DrinC software and Mann-Kendall tests with Sen's slope estimator. SPI values over different timeframes, ranging from SPI-12, 6-, to 3-, spanning from 1992 to 2021, were examined. This diverse dataset enabled a comprehensive assessment of drought severity at various points throughout the year, essential for agricultural planning and resource management. The study underscores the heterogeneous rainfall patterns observed across months and seasons, indicating fluctuating mean levels and variability throughout the study period. Despite these fluctuations, a moderate annual rainfall variability persists. Temperature analysis revealed consistent trends with occasional notable fluctuations, particularly in select months showing upward trends. The findings elucidate various demographic and socio-economic factors that significantly influence agro-pastoral coping strategies for drought impacts, such as sex, age, family size, credit availability, and agricultural extent. Conversely, predictors like education level, farmland size, and climate information demonstrated non-significance depending on the coping strategy analyzed. These insights offer valuable perspectives into the determinants shaping adaptive behaviors in agro- pastoral communities grappling with drought challenges