Abstract:
Climate variability impacts are the biggest concern of developing countries like Ethiopia, with
economic system dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Assessment of the impact of climate variability
on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming condition for maximized
productivity. The overall objective of the present study was therefore to analyze the impacts of
climate variability on teff [Eragrostis Tef (Zucc.)Trotter] productivity and adaptation strategies
used by farmers in Toke Kutaye district. Purposive and systematic random sampling techniques
were applied to select three kebeles based on teff production potential and 123 households were
randomly selected. The primary data were collected through household survey, interviews, and
focus group discussions. Besides, rainfall and temperature data of 21 years (1998-2018) were
collected from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, whereas teff productivity data
was collected from Ambo Plant Protection Research Center. Data of adaptation strategies
assessment was generated through household survey by employing semi-structured interviews with
123 respondents of three kebeles. Data were analyzed by INSTAT plus (v3.36), XLSTAT 2014 and
SPSS to determine mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation
(CV) and correlation and multiple regressions. The result revealed that monthly rainfall totals
showed decreasing trend except for May, June, and August, whereas seasonal and annual rainfall
totals (CV= 24.8) were moderately variable. Annual and belg rainfall totals showed a statistically
non-significant decreasing trend whereas; kiremt rainfall total had an increasing trend in the study
area for a period of 1998-2018. The earliest onset date of the rainy season or kiremt at Toke
Kutaye was 149 DOY (May 28) while the latest date was 211 DOY (July 29) with less variability.
The mean lengths of growing period (LGP) for belg and kiremt seasons were 107.2 and 76.5 days,
respectively. Probability of experiencing dry spells of 5,7,10 and 15 days were > 25%, >10%, 0%
and 0%, during kiremt season. The result of annual and seasonal temperature analysis showed
increasing pattern for both maximum and minimum temperature. Similarly, monthly minimum
temperature also showed greater variability compared to maximum temperature. The CV % of
annual maximum and minimum temperature was 1.4 and 5.4, respectively. Multiple linear
regression analysis showed that the coefficient of determination (R2
) was 0.70 (i.e. 70. % of
variation in teff productivity is explained by the climatic parameters jointly). The survey data
showed that the households used multiple climate variability adaptation strategies such as
changing planting dates (44.7%), Soil and water conservation practices (33.3%), Crop rotation
(26.02 %), Adjusting the level and timing of fertilizer application (16.2%) and changing crop
varieties (12.2%). More research is needed to explore more factors that may enhance productivity
of teff and improve adaptation of the farmers against climate variability in the study area.
