Abstract:
Pesti Des Petitis Ruminants Disease (PPR) is infectious diseases of sheep and goats that
got a global attention for eradication across the globe due to its huge economic impact. However, the spatio-temporal occurrence of the disease as an aid for strategic control and
preventive tools was not used particularly in the study area, West Harerghe Zone, Eastern
Ethiopia. Hence the study was meant to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of
PPR outbreaks with the associated risk factors from the existing surveillance data in the
past from 2006-2020 years up on a retrospective study design. Descriptive statistics were
computed and Pair wise correlation analysis and computation of 95% CI were made by
STATA. V.14. The spatial distribution were mapped to the respective administrative
districts. Hot Spot analysis and Cluster analysis was made to identify the hot and cold spot
areas by using ArcGIS v10.4. A negative binomial regression analysis was also used to
assess the potential risk factors associated with the case count of PPR disease from each
outbreak. A total of 121 PPR outbreaks with 11424 cases, 3025 deaths with an average
annual case fatality rate of 29.83% were reported. Goats account for 65.3% , 87.44% , 89.0 % and 26.01% of the outbreaks, cases, deaths and CFR, respectively. The cases were
significantly elevated in the period from 2011 to 2020 (R2=0.6998, r=0.8284, p-0.0031). The overall mean morbidity rate of PPR was 21.27% (95%CI, 11.20-31.34) and mortality
rate was 7.16%, (95%CI, 1.33-12.99). The incidence of PPR outbreak was increased
gradually during the main rainy months, September and November and with a peak
between December and March. PPR disease outbreaks were reported from all districts of
west Hararghe Zone except Messela. Hawi Gudina, Darolabu, Habro, Burka Dintu, Gumbi
Bordede and Anchar was identified as PPR disease hot spot areas while Doba ,Chiro
Zuria, Mieso and Gemechis were the disease cold spot areas (Moran's Index: 0.767199, P<0.001). Among the variables studied, age, season, agro-ecology, rainfall pattern and
communal watering points in the district was found to predict PPR case counts (P<0.05). PPR disease was found well distributed across the districts where many districts revailed
disease hot spot areas regardless of the control and preventive activities. Therefore, strengthening the existing veterinary service and establishing an early warning system in
the hot spot areas and vaccination following the disease map is recommende
