SPATIO-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PESTI DES PETITIS RUMINANTS DISEASE OUTBREAKS FROM 2006 TO 2020 IN SHEEP AND GOATS IN WEST HARARGHE ZONE, EASTERN ETHIOPI

Abstract

Pesti Des Petitis Ruminants Disease (PPR) is infectious diseases of sheep and goats that got a global attention for eradication across the globe due to its huge economic impact. However, the spatio-temporal occurrence of the disease as an aid for strategic control and preventive tools was not used particularly in the study area, West Harerghe Zone, Eastern Ethiopia. Hence the study was meant to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of PPR outbreaks with the associated risk factors from the existing surveillance data in the past from 2006-2020 years up on a retrospective study design. Descriptive statistics were computed and Pair wise correlation analysis and computation of 95% CI were made by STATA. V.14. The spatial distribution were mapped to the respective administrative districts. Hot Spot analysis and Cluster analysis was made to identify the hot and cold spot areas by using ArcGIS v10.4. A negative binomial regression analysis was also used to assess the potential risk factors associated with the case count of PPR disease from each outbreak. A total of 121 PPR outbreaks with 11424 cases, 3025 deaths with an average annual case fatality rate of 29.83% were reported. Goats account for 65.3% , 87.44% , 89.0 % and 26.01% of the outbreaks, cases, deaths and CFR, respectively. The cases were significantly elevated in the period from 2011 to 2020 (R2=0.6998, r=0.8284, p-0.0031). The overall mean morbidity rate of PPR was 21.27% (95%CI, 11.20-31.34) and mortality rate was 7.16%, (95%CI, 1.33-12.99). The incidence of PPR outbreak was increased gradually during the main rainy months, September and November and with a peak between December and March. PPR disease outbreaks were reported from all districts of west Hararghe Zone except Messela. Hawi Gudina, Darolabu, Habro, Burka Dintu, Gumbi Bordede and Anchar was identified as PPR disease hot spot areas while Doba ,Chiro Zuria, Mieso and Gemechis were the disease cold spot areas (Moran's Index: 0.767199, P<0.001). Among the variables studied, age, season, agro-ecology, rainfall pattern and communal watering points in the district was found to predict PPR case counts (P<0.05). PPR disease was found well distributed across the districts where many districts revailed disease hot spot areas regardless of the control and preventive activities. Therefore, strengthening the existing veterinary service and establishing an early warning system in the hot spot areas and vaccination following the disease map is recommende