Abstract:
Climate change and variability are emerging issues across the global, especially in countries
where rain-fed agriculture is a means of livelihood. Hence, the current study aimed to
characterize the climate variability of the study area and its implication for potato production.
Potato yield data for a period of 12 years was obtained from Agricultural Office of Kombolcha
District for kiremt season. Historical rainfall and temperature data of Kombolcha station were
obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for a period of (1988-2017)
whereas, projected (2020-2050) rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were
downscaled from MarkSim web version for IPCC AR5 data (CMIP5) using four climate models
namely:CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, BCC-CSM 1.1, MIROC5, NorESM1-M and under RCP4.5 emission
scenarios. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were used to establish the
relationship and effect of rainfall and temperature on the yield of potato. The annual rainfall
ranged from 274 to 983 mm during the study period and rainfall increased by a factor of 5.82
mm/year and 58.2 mm /decade. Kiremt rainfall showed a decreasing trend by a factor of -0.167
mm/year. The annual maximum and minimum temperature varied between 24.25OC and
26.18OC and 11.04 OC to 13.0 OC, respectively. The annual rainfall ranged from 274 to 983
mm/yr in the last thirty years. Seasonaly,belg and kiremt rainfall ranged from 119 to 386 and
115 to 608mm/yr respectively. On the other hand, projected annual, belg and kiremt rainfall in
the upcoming thirty years is expected to be from 725 to 1031.2, 235.8 to 427.6 and 400.5 to 510
mm/yr, respectively. The projected potato yield in qt/ha will be 172.30 qt/ha, 169.94 qt/ha and
94.79 qt/ha,159.50 qt/h and 83.29 qt/ha by 2030, 2035,2040,2045 and 2050, respectively in the
study area. What is relationship between potato yield and climate variability? As rainfall and
temperature are changing, all stakeholders have to work on climate change adaptation and
mitigation strategy like reducing burning of fossil fuel and deforestation, using energy efficiency
and sustainable energy sources.
