CHARACTERIZATION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND ITS EFFECT ON POTATO (Solanum tuberosum L.) PRODUCTIVITY IN KOMBOLCHA DISTRICT OF EAST HARARGHE ZONE, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Climate change and variability are emerging issues across the global, especially in countries where rain-fed agriculture is a means of livelihood. Hence, the current study aimed to characterize the climate variability of the study area and its implication for potato production. Potato yield data for a period of 12 years was obtained from Agricultural Office of Kombolcha District for kiremt season. Historical rainfall and temperature data of Kombolcha station were obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for a period of (1988-2017) whereas, projected (2020-2050) rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were downscaled from MarkSim web version for IPCC AR5 data (CMIP5) using four climate models namely:CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, BCC-CSM 1.1, MIROC5, NorESM1-M and under RCP4.5 emission scenarios. Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were used to establish the relationship and effect of rainfall and temperature on the yield of potato. The annual rainfall ranged from 274 to 983 mm during the study period and rainfall increased by a factor of 5.82 mm/year and 58.2 mm /decade. Kiremt rainfall showed a decreasing trend by a factor of -0.167 mm/year. The annual maximum and minimum temperature varied between 24.25OC and 26.18OC and 11.04 OC to 13.0 OC, respectively. The annual rainfall ranged from 274 to 983 mm/yr in the last thirty years. Seasonaly,belg and kiremt rainfall ranged from 119 to 386 and 115 to 608mm/yr respectively. On the other hand, projected annual, belg and kiremt rainfall in the upcoming thirty years is expected to be from 725 to 1031.2, 235.8 to 427.6 and 400.5 to 510 mm/yr, respectively. The projected potato yield in qt/ha will be 172.30 qt/ha, 169.94 qt/ha and 94.79 qt/ha,159.50 qt/h and 83.29 qt/ha by 2030, 2035,2040,2045 and 2050, respectively in the study area. What is relationship between potato yield and climate variability? As rainfall and temperature are changing, all stakeholders have to work on climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy like reducing burning of fossil fuel and deforestation, using energy efficiency and sustainable energy sources.