Abstract:
This study was conducted in Gode District of the Shabelle Zone in the Somali Regional State,
Ethiopia, to analysis drought severity over the past three decades, assess coping strategies used by
pastoral households, and identify factors influencing their coping choices. A cross-sectional survey
design was applied, integrating both quantitative and qualitative methods. A total of 396 pastoral
households were selected using multi-stage sampling. Primary data were collected through
structured questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and field
observations, while secondary data comprising 30 years of meteorological records were obtained
from the National Meteorological Services Agency. Rainfall variability and trends were analyzed
using descriptive statistics, the Mann Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and the Rainfall
Anomaly Index (RAI). A multinomial logit (MNL) model was employed to examine determinants of
coping strategies. The climate analysis revealed substantial rainfall variability, increasing
temperature trends, and recurrent drought episodes, with pronounced negative RAI anomalies in
2000, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Respondents perceived drought as becoming more severe
and rainfall as decreasing and more unpredictable. The major impacts included livestock mortality,
declining income, food insecurity, rangeland degradation, and reduced water availability.
Households employed a range of coping mechanisms, including livestock mobility, herd
diversification, off-farm income activities, community-based support systems such as destocking,
and limited reliance on government and NGO assistance. The MNL model results indicated that
age, sex, education, access to credit, income, land scarcity, climate information, and training
significantly influenced the choice of coping strategies. The study recommends strengthening early
warning systems, improving rangeland management, promoting livelihood diversification, and
enhancing social safety nets to build long-term resilience among pastoral households.
