DROUGHT SEVERITY ANALYSIS AND COPING STRATEGIES OF PASTORAL HOUSEHOLDS IN GODE DISTRICT, SHABELLE ZONE, SOMALI REGION, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

This study was conducted in Gode District of the Shabelle Zone in the Somali Regional State, Ethiopia, to analysis drought severity over the past three decades, assess coping strategies used by pastoral households, and identify factors influencing their coping choices. A cross-sectional survey design was applied, integrating both quantitative and qualitative methods. A total of 396 pastoral households were selected using multi-stage sampling. Primary data were collected through structured questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations, while secondary data comprising 30 years of meteorological records were obtained from the National Meteorological Services Agency. Rainfall variability and trends were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the Mann Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimator, and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). A multinomial logit (MNL) model was employed to examine determinants of coping strategies. The climate analysis revealed substantial rainfall variability, increasing temperature trends, and recurrent drought episodes, with pronounced negative RAI anomalies in 2000, 2010, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Respondents perceived drought as becoming more severe and rainfall as decreasing and more unpredictable. The major impacts included livestock mortality, declining income, food insecurity, rangeland degradation, and reduced water availability. Households employed a range of coping mechanisms, including livestock mobility, herd diversification, off-farm income activities, community-based support systems such as destocking, and limited reliance on government and NGO assistance. The MNL model results indicated that age, sex, education, access to credit, income, land scarcity, climate information, and training significantly influenced the choice of coping strategies. The study recommends strengthening early warning systems, improving rangeland management, promoting livelihood diversification, and enhancing social safety nets to build long-term resilience among pastoral households.