STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RISK AND HOUSEHOLDS’ CROP PRODUCTION DECESION IN JIMMA RARE DISTRICT, HORRO GUDURU WOLLEGA ZONE, OROMIYA, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

This study aims at assessing the factors influencing the production risks due to hail or heavy rainfall and crop production choices of farmers in Jimma Rare District. The data was generated from primary source and 196 households were randomly selected from four kebeles. Both descriptive statistics and econometric model were applied in this study to analyze the data collected from the selected sample households. A Negative binomial regression model was applied to analyze factors influencing production risks due to hail or heavy rainfall faced by households and Multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyze the major factors influencing the crop production choices of households. The result of Negative binomial regression model shows that, age of household heads and total land size have positively and significantly influenced the number of production risks due to hail or heavy rainfall faced by households, but negatively affected by livestock size, access to extension service, and access to training. The result of Multinomial logit model revealed that, age of household heads, education level of household heads, availability of agricultural input, access to agricultural infrastructure, and agro-ecological zone have positively and significantly influenced farmers’ choices of crop types while negatively influenced by the total land size. Therefore, the study recommends that, improving access to training, availability of agricultural inputs at planting time, and preparing experience sharing among farmers should be promoted to decrease number of production risks due to hail or heavy rainfall and increase the productivity of farmers by appropriate choice of crop production in the study area